DCW DAILY BRIEF

Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Market Intelligence

Date: February 24th, 2026 │ Tuesday Edition #400

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James Bowater

linkedin.com/in/james-bowater-b47612 | Twitter/X: X.com@TheDCW_JB

https://www.thedigitalcommonwealth.com/

Next Event: https://www.thedigitalcommonwealth.com‍

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Global cryptocurrency markets opened Tuesday, February 24th, 2026, under intensifying pressure as Wall Street tumbled more than 1% on twin fears of AI-driven economic disruption and persistent tariff uncertainty. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $63,000 during Monday's sharp selloff before stabilising near $63,200, continuing its decline from the $65,658 level seen 24 hours earlier. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11 (Extreme Fear), deeper into panic territory, as sentiment deteriorated further. Total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.22 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at approximately 57%, as altcoins bear disproportionate losses amid risk-off flows.

US equity markets closed Monday sharply lower: the Dow fell 1.66% to 48,804, the S&P 500 shed 1.04% to 6,837, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.13% to 22,627, as investors cut exposure amid AI disruption fears, specifically concerns that agentic AI could displace financial services and software jobs alongside continued tariff uncertainty under Trump’s new 15% global levy. Financials fell 3.3%, and software stocks fell 4.3%, while defensive sectors, including healthcare (+1.2%) and consumer staples, outperformed. Gold surged 2.6% to approximately $5,220/oz on safe-haven demand. NVIDIA is the critical event of the week, reporting earnings Wednesday evening, with consensus EPS at $1.53 per share (+71.9% year-on-year) on revenue of $65.7 billion; Trump’s State of the Union address is scheduled for tonight at 9 PM ET.

The dominant macro signal for Tuesday is the convergence of AI disruption fears and tariff-driven uncertainty now weighing on both traditional and digital asset markets. A research note from Citrini Research warning of potential 10% unemployment from the AI boom circulated widely on Wall Street trading floors Monday, triggering a broad-based software sector selloff described by some analysts as a “SaaSpocalypse.” Concurrently, Crypto.com received conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank charter, the latest digital asset firm to achieve federally regulated custodial status. The EU Parliament’s ECON Committee also issued a landmark draft report on digital assets and the competitiveness of the EU’s financial system. The SEC reduced the capital haircut on stablecoins from 100% to 2%, a structural development that is expected to accelerate institutional stablecoin adoption.

Wall Street Tumbles 1%+ on AI Disruption and Tariff Fears; Bitcoin Dips Below $63,000

US indices fell more than 1% on Monday, February 23rd, as investors cut exposure to risk assets amid twin fears of AI-driven economic disruption and persistent tariff uncertainty under Trump’s new 15% global levy. The Dow fell 1.66% to 48,804, the S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837, and the Nasdaq declined 1.13% to 22,627. Financials fell 3.3% and software stocks dropped 4.3%, while Eli Lilly surged 4.9% and healthcare gained 1.2%. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $63,000 during the selloff before stabilising near $63,200, reflecting broad risk aversion. Gold surged 2.6% to ~$5,220/oz. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.9% on AI optimism, and Brent crude climbed toward $72/bbl. Trump’s State of the Union is tonight at 9 PM ET; NVIDIA reports on Wednesday.

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES

💹 MARKETS

• Bitcoin briefly drops below $63,000 on Monday, stabilising near $63,200 (down ~3.4% on the day), as the broader Wall Street selloff triggered by AI disruption fears and tariff uncertainty spilled into crypto; BTC fell as low as $62,640 intraday before recovering; $60,000 remains the next critical support zone
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index falls to 11 (Extreme Fear), deteriorating further from Monday’s 14 and Friday’s 11, as sentiment plumbs new 2026 lows; yesterday’s reading was 5; last week 10; last month 25, illustrating the persistent deterioration across February
• Ethereum trades near ~$1,835, down ~2.4%, extending multi-day losses below the critical $1,900 level; ETH spot ETFs recorded $41.8 million in net outflows led by BlackRock’s ETHA (-$30M); ETH ETF holders face an approximately 47% drawdown from their ~$3,500 average cost basis; $1,800 is the next major support
• Total crypto market cap approximately $2.22 trillion, down ~0.4% in the past 24 hours; Bitcoin dominance at approximately 57%; DeFi market cap declined 5.5% to $46.3 billion; Coinglass data shows nearly $470 million in total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, with over 135,000 traders liquidated
• US equities closed Monday sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837, Nasdaq -1.13% to 22,627, Dow -1.66% to 48,804 (down 821 points), as AI disruption fears from Citrini Research’s “10% unemployment” report hit financials (-3.3%), software (-4.3%), and IBM (-13%) hard; Nvidia gained 0.9% ahead of Wednesday earnings; around 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q4 expectations with aggregate earnings growth now at 13.9%
• Asian markets mixed Tuesday; Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.9% on AI infrastructure optimism and yen weakness (yen slips to ~155/dollar); oil rises as Brent climbs toward $72/bbl on US-Iran tensions ahead of Geneva talks Thursday; Asian tech stocks outperformed amid contrarian positioning before Nvidia earnings Wednesday
• Gold surges 2.6% to approximately $5,220/oz on safe-haven demand as AI and tariff fears drive investors to defensive assets; consumer staples and healthcare outperformed; silver edges higher toward $88/oz; Brent crude rises toward $72/bbl on US-Iran tensions ahead of Geneva nuclear talks Thursday
• Markets continue to price approximately 50-52% probability of a June Fed rate cut; Home Depot reports earnings today and Nvidia reports Wednesday post-close  EPS consensus at $1.53/share (+71.9% year-on-year) on revenue of $65.7 billion; options pricing a 4-6% move in NVDA; Consumer Confidence (February) also released today at 10:00 AM ET; Trump State of the Union tonight 9 PM ET
• IBM shares fell 13% Monday after Anthropic outlined new programming capabilities for its Claude Code product, raising AI disruption concerns across software sectors; CrowdStrike fell nearly 10%, and Microsoft dropped 3%; the software sector selloff, described by some as “SaaSpocalypse” reflects growing market concern that agentic AI will structurally reduce demand for traditional software

🏢 Institutional & Corporate

• Crypto.com receives conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank charter (Foris Dax National Trust Bank), paving the way for federally regulated custody, staking across blockchains including Cronos, and trade settlement services; this marks a significant expansion of digital asset firms entering the regulated banking framework
• Nvidia reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings Wednesday after market close; consensus expects EPS of $1.53/share (+71.9% YoY) on revenue of $65.7 billion (+67% YoY); Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described Blackwell platform demand as “off the charts”; Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $200; Wells Fargo raised its target to $220; options imply a 4-6% move in either direction
• JPMorgan fined €12.18 million by the European Central Bank for “serious negligence” in its calculation of risk-bearing assets; Chase separately announces plans to open more than 160 new branches and renovate a further 600 in 2026 as part of a multi-billion dollar network investment
• PayPal discloses a data breach from a coding bug that leaked sensitive customer information for six months and led to a number of unauthorised transactions before it was discovered and fixed; highlights persistent cybersecurity vulnerabilities in digital payments infrastructure
• Starling Bank’s Engine SaaS business signs New Zealand mutual SBS Bank as its latest client, continuing the UK fintech’s international banking-as-a-service expansion; LSE and Crowdcube launch their first retail investor offer, giving retail investors access to Oxford Science Enterprises through their private securities market partnership
• Deutsche Bank research surveys its own AI systems on the future of finance employment, with the AI indicating it is “coming for finance jobs”; adds to broader market anxiety around AI disruption that drove Monday’s sharp selloff in financial services stocks (-3.3%)
• Around 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q4 2025 earnings expectations, with aggregate fourth-quarter earnings growth now seen at 13.9%, providing a positive fundamental backdrop even as macro fears weigh on prices; Workday, HP, Home Depot, and First Solar all report today
• Coinbase Markets launches ETHGas (GWEI) spot trading today (GWEI-USD opens at 9:00 AM PT), expanding trading infrastructure for the Ethereum network fee token; further evidence of deepening institutional crypto market infrastructure development
• Bitcoin ETF outflows continue: BTC spot ETFs posted $133.3 million in net outflows on February 18th alone, led by BlackRock’s IBIT (-$84.2M) and Fidelity’s FBTC (-$49M); ETH spot ETFs saw $41.8 million in outflows; XRP ETFs posted $2.2 million in outflows; only Solana spot ETFs bucked the trend with $2.4 million in net inflows, per Bitwise’s BSOL
• A crypto whale deposited $2 million USDC into Hyperliquid on February 23rd and immediately opened a 20x leveraged long position on SOL, signalling bullish conviction from at least some institutional DeFi participants even as the broader market deteriorates; Binance’s stablecoin reserves have fallen ~19% since November, reducing on-exchange dip-buying capacity

⚖️ Regulatory & Policy

• OCC grants Crypto.com conditional approval for a national trust bank charter (Foris Dax National Trust Bank), enabling federally regulated custody, staking, and trade settlement; joins a growing list of digital asset firms gaining direct regulatory status; underscores the deepening integration of crypto into the US banking framework
• EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) issues draft report on digital assets on February 23rd, exploring the impact of digital asset emergence on the financial services sector, competitiveness, and regulatory integrity of the EU’s financial system; a significant input into post-MiCA regulatory evolution
• SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce clarifies that broker-dealers need only apply a 2% haircut to stablecoins (reduced from an effective 100%), aligning with the haircut applied to money market funds; this structural change dramatically reduces the capital cost of holding stablecoins for broker-dealers and is expected to accelerate institutional stablecoin adoption significantly
• Trump’s State of the Union address tonight at 9 PM ET will be monitored closely by digital asset markets for signals on tariff policy, stablecoin legislation, and the GENIUS Act timeline; delivered days after the SCOTUS IEEPA rebuke, markets expect Trump to signal the next phase of his trade policy reconstitution under the Trade Act of 1974
• Step Finance, SolanaFloor, and Remora Markets announce they will cease operations following a $40 million hack; the team plans STEP token buybacks and redemptions; World Liberty Financial (WLFI) alleges a coordinated attack after co-founder accounts were hacked and USD1 stablecoin temporarily depegged, creating acute scrutiny of DeFi security infrastructure
• CZ signals potential Binance US expansion plans at the World Liberty Financial forum, noting that Binance US could grow in America when regulations become more favourable; the SEC withdrew its suit against Binance in 2023, leaving the path open for potential re-entry into the US market

🤖 Technology & Innovation

• Nvidia (NVDA) reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings Wednesday post-close; analysts call for EPS of $1.53/share (+71.9% YoY) on revenue of $65.7 billion; Nvidia gained 0.9% Monday amid market weakness, outperforming; Jensen Huang previously described Blackwell demand as “off the charts”; Goldman Sachs raised target to $200; Wells Fargo to $220; short interest at just 1% of float
• AI disruption fears drove Monday’s broad software selloff after Citrini Research released analysis suggesting the AI boom could lead to 10% unemployment, circulated on Wall Street trading floors; IBM fell 13% after Anthropic outlined new programming capabilities for Claude Code; CrowdStrike fell 10%; Microsoft dropped 3%; the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative is reshaping sector allocations in real time
• Anthropic’s Claude Code product capabilities, disclosed Monday, triggered IBM’s 13% single-day decline as markets reassessed the pace of AI-driven software displacement; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back, stating at a recent conference that the notion software industry is “in decline and will be replaced by AI is the most illogical thing in the world”; the debate between AI disruption and AI enablement will define tech sector performance through 2026
• Salesforce reports earnings Wednesday alongside Nvidia, providing a bellwether read for the embattled software sector; Salesforce and other SaaS companies are trading near record lows versus their 200-day moving averages as zero percent of software stocks trade above the 200-day MA, versus 89% of chip stocks, per Schwab analysis; the results may determine whether the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative has merit or is oversold
• WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin temporarily depegged following an alleged coordinated attack on co-founder accounts, raising acute questions about DeFi security and the resilience of protocol-native stablecoins; the incident adds to existing regulatory scrutiny of non-bank stablecoin issuers under the advancing GENIUS Act framework

📈 Market Overview

🌐 TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP: $2.22 TRILLION

24h Change: Down ~0.4%  |  Bitcoin Dominance: ~57.0%

💰 Digital Assets Performance

₿ BITCOIN (BTC)

Price: $63,200 (down ~3.4% over 24 hours)

24h Volume: ~$24.6 Billion  |  Market Cap: ~$1.27 Trillion  |  Dominance: ~57.0%  |  24h Range: $62,640–$65,800

Bitcoin opened Tuesday, February 24th, under significant pressure, sliding 4.5% in just two hours to approximately $64,200, its lowest level since February 5th, before recovering to around $65,658. The break below $65,000 is technically significant: analysts had flagged this level as critical support, and its breach means $60,000 is now the next major zone to watch. Open interest dropped to $19.5 billion, far below the 2026 peak of $38.3 billion, as leveraged long positions are systematically unwound. The asset has experienced a drawdown of approximately 48% from its October all-time high of $126,198. Short-term whale cohorts hold approximately $26 billion in unrealised losses, a level of stress that could trigger further capitulation selling if volatility persists.

The Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear) represents the deepest fear reading of 2026 thus far. On-chain data continues to reflect bottom-building dynamics: retail accumulation remains elevated while larger whale cohorts have reduced positions since October. Coinglass data showed nearly $470 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, with the largest single BTC-USDT liquidation of $61.51 million occurring on HTX. Bernstein continues to maintain its $150,000 year-end target, characterising the current environment as the “weakest bear case in history” noting no insolvencies or blow-ups as seen in 2022. Binance stablecoin reserves have fallen ~19% since November, constraining on-exchange dip-buying capacity and limiting recovery momentum.

Ξ ETHEREUM (ETH)

Price: $1,835 (down ~2.4% over 24 hours)

24h Volume: ~$21.9 Billion  |  Market Cap: ~$218 Billion  |  Network Transactions: >2 Million Daily

Ethereum extended its decline to approximately $1,835 on Tuesday, down around 2.4% over 24 hours, amid continued institutional selling pressure. US ETH spot ETFs recorded $41.8 million in net outflows on February 18th, led by BlackRock’s ETHA shedding nearly $30 million; total net assets across ether funds stand at $11.1 billion, approximately 4.8% of ETH’s market cap. ETH ETF holders face approximately a 47% drawdown from their ~$3,500 average cost basis. The most significant structural catalyst ahead remains the regulatory review of the BlackRock ETHB staking ETF: if approved, it would reposition ETH as a yield-bearing asset within institutional portfolios. The $1,800 level represents the next critical technical support zone; a breach could target $1,700.

🔷 XRP

Price: $1.33 (down ~2.3%)  |  24h Volume: ~$3.2 Billion  |  Market Cap: ~$77 Billion

XRP continued its decline to approximately $1.33 on Tuesday, down around 2.3%, extending its weekly loss to over 10% amid broad risk-off conditions as altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. XRP ETFs posted $2.2 million in daily outflows, with total net assets across XRP funds at just over $1 billion (roughly 1.2% of XRP's market cap). The $1.26–$1.27 flash-crash lows remain the critical technical support zone; a break below could target $1.13. The SEC’s 2% stablecoin haircut ruling is a medium-term structural positive for XRP’s institutional payments thesis, as it reduces the capital cost of holding stablecoins for broker-dealers integrating XRP-based rails.

◎ SOLANA (SOL)

Price: $77.00 (down ~2.2%)  |  24h Volume: ~$4.7 Billion  |  Market Cap: ~$36 Billion

Solana extended its decline to approximately $77.00 on Tuesday, down around 2.2% in the past 24 hours, with a weekly loss of over 11%. Despite the broader weakness, US Solana spot ETFs stood out, recording $2.4 million in net inflows on February 18th, led by Bitwise’s BSOL ($1.5 million), pushing cumulative inflows to nearly $880 million, a sign of selective institutional interest. A whale deposited $2 million USDC to Hyperliquid on February 23rd and opened a 20x leveraged long on SOL, signalling aggressive bullish conviction from at least some DeFi participants. The $78–$80 zone remains critical support; a sustained break below $78 could target $70. The $40 million Step Finance hack, which is shutting down the protocol, adds ecosystem stress, though it remains isolated to one project.

🔺 CARDANO (ADA)

Price: ~$0.258 (down ~2.6%)  |  24h Volume: ~$520 Million  |  Market Cap: ~$9.1 Billion

Cardano traded around $0.270 on Monday, down about 4.1%, in line with the broader altcoin selloff. The network continues to await the anticipated USDCx stablecoin launch by the end of February 2026. The privacy-focused Circle stablecoin with zero-knowledge features remains a significant near-term structural catalyst for Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem. Extreme Fear sentiment continues to weigh disproportionately on lower-liquidity Layer 1 assets; however, the imminent stablecoin catalyst and Cardano’s research-driven development model continues to attract long-term institutional interest.

🐕 DOGECOIN (DOGE)

Price: $0.091 (down ~3.4%)  |  24h Volume: ~$1.5 Billion  |  Market Cap: ~$13.5 Billion

Dogecoin fell to approximately $0.098 on Monday, down around 4.6%, as meme coin categories suffered disproportionate losses amid the tariff-driven risk-off environment. DOGE remains highly sensitive to macro sentiment and binary events, as well as social media catalysts. 21Shares rang the Nasdaq bell to launch a Dogecoin ETF, marking the expansion of the regulated altcoin ETF landscape, though initial adoption appears limited. The asset continues to attract strong retail trading interest, maintaining daily volumes near $1.6 billion despite the broader market’s weakness.

📊 Market Sentiment Indicators

😟 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear) ⚠️

Market sentiment on Tuesday, February 24th, remains deeply entrenched in Extreme Fear territory, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11, down from yesterday's level of 14, but still within the most severe range of 2026. The index stood at 11 on Friday, 24 last week, and 42 last month, illustrating the persistent deterioration across February. Bitcoin dominance has risen to approximately 60%, confirming continued capital rotation from altcoins into BTC as investors seek relative safety. Historical analysis consistently shows that sustained readings below 15 have preceded significant medium-term recoveries. With Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, and US-Iran Geneva talks Thursday, the week is dense with potential catalysts. Bernstein’s characterisation of the current environment as the “weakest bear case in history”, noting the absence of insolvencies or blow-ups unlike 2022, provides a structural counterpoint to the fear readings.

🏛️ Traditional Markets Context

US equity markets closed sharply lower on Monday. The Dow Jones fell 1.66% (821 points) to 48,804, the S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837, returning it to the red for 2026, and the Nasdaq declined 1.13% to 22,627. The session was defined by brutal selloffs in financials (-3.3%) and software (-4.3%), driven by Citrini Research's “AI causes 10% unemployment” paper circulating on trading floors and IBM's 13% crash following Anthropic's Claude Code revelations. Microsoft fell 3%, CrowdStrike retreated nearly 10%, and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is now down nearly 6% year to date. Defensive sectors outperformed: healthcare gained 1.2%, Eli Lilly rose 4.9%, and consumer staples were among the few advancing sectors. US 10-year Treasury yields stand at approximately 4.1%.

Asian markets are mixed on Monday. MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rose 0.9% in light trade; South Korea extended its bull run with a 0.5% gain, having already surged 5.5% last week to all-time highs, benefiting from the prospect of lower effective US tariff rates; Taiwan gained 1.2% to a record peak. Japan’s markets were closed for a national holiday. Goldman Sachs estimates China will enjoy the largest effective tariff rate decline of 6.6 percentage points from the SCOTUS ruling, followed by several South and Southeast Asian economies. European futures were softer, with EUROSTOXX 50 and DAX futures both down 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.1%. The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF hit an all-time high amid dollar weakness and growing rotation into international equities.

The key macro data for context: Q4 GDP grew at just 1.4% annualised, well below the 2.5% consensus, largely due to the government shutdown, though Q1 2026 growth is expected to recover. Core PCE inflation held at 3.0% year-over-year in December, above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets now price approximately a 52% probability of a June rate cut, slightly up from around 40% last week, as the weak GDP reading provides the Fed with some cover. The week ahead includes 11 Federal Reserve speaker events, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and January PPI on Friday. Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday will be watched closely for any new economic or trade policy signals following the SCOTUS rebuke.

📦 Commodities

🥇 Gold: ~$5,220/oz

Surging 2.6% on safe-haven demand; AI disruption fears and tariff uncertainty drive investors to defensive assets; approaching January 28th record high of $5,602.22; Geneva talks Thursday remain a geopolitical wildcard

⚪ Silver: ~$88.00/oz

Edging higher near $88/oz; precious metal safe-haven flows and dollar weakness continue to support; silver testing the next major resistance at $92/oz per technical analysis

🛢️ WTI: ~$67.20/bbl  |  Brent: ~$72.00/bbl

Rising on US-Iran tensions ahead of Thursday’s Geneva nuclear talks round 3, crude building bullish pressure and testing the $67.20 resistance level, WTI is gradually building higher lows, and geopolitical risk premium supports upside.

Gold is trading near $5,220 per ounce, steady and supported by safe-haven demand, amid escalating tensions between Iran and the US following President Trump’s 10-15-day ultimatum on the nuclear deal. The precious metal remains well below its January 28th record high of $5,602.22, reflecting the complex interplay of dollar weakness, a geopolitical risk premium, and tariff-driven safe-haven demand. Silver's 3.2% surge to $88.25 per ounce reflects both precious metal safe-haven demand and short-covering dynamics after climbing almost 8% on Friday. Oil retreated as traders positioned ahead of Thursday's US-Iran talks in Geneva. The dollar shed 0.4-0.6% against the yen and Swiss franc, while the euro gained approximately 0.4% to $1.1826, as the "sell America" trade revived amid tariff confusion.

📝 Market Narrative & Analysis

Tuesday, February 24th, 2026, opens with a highly complex tariff landscape. The US Supreme Court delivered Friday’s 6-3 IEEPA ruling, the event that was expected to catalyse a bullish Bitcoin surge. Still, the initial euphoria was swiftly overtaken by Trump’s imposition of first a 10%, then a 15% global tariff under alternative legal authority, recreating policy uncertainty in a new form. The “sell America” trade has revived: US futures are down 0.7-1.0%, the dollar is weakening, gold is rising, and crypto is selling off. Bitcoin fell below $65,000 intraday before recovering slightly to ~$65,658. With $65,000 support broken, $60,000 is now the next critical level. The Fear & Greed Index at 14 (Extreme Fear) remains near its 2026 lows, and Glassnode data confirms that capitalisation is ongoing.

The most significant institutional development of the weekend is BlackRock’s announcement of the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB). By embedding staking into an ETF wrapper and distributing 82% of staking yield to shareholders through execution partner Coinbase, BlackRock is effectively repositioning Ethereum as a yield-bearing asset within institutional portfolios, addressing the structural disadvantage ETH has faced versus bonds and dividend-paying equities in a high-rate environment. If approved, ETHB could represent the most significant institutional Ethereum catalyst since the launch of spot ETH ETFs. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s $30 billion direct equity stake in OpenAI, replacing the original $100 billion infrastructure deal, signals an important maturation in AI partnership structures: moving from chip-purchase obligations toward direct platform equity exposure, with OpenAI valued at approximately $830 billion.

The post-SCOTUS regulatory and policy landscape is rapidly crystallising. The 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump strips approximately $1.4 trillion in projected tariff revenue from the administration’s fiscal projections. It returns the question of refunds to the Court of International Trade, with over $160 billion in potentially returnable duties. The EU is carefully analysing the ruling’s implications for bilateral trade negotiations. Goldman Sachs estimates that China stands to benefit most from lower effective US tariff rates in the short run, down 6.6 percentage points, followed by several South and Southeast Asian economies. Market strategists are characterising Trump’s escalation to 15% under the Trade Act of 1974 as “all gas, some brakes”, persistent tariff pressure through alternative legal channels, but with reduced long-term certainty and a potential refund obligation that complicates the fiscal outlook.

Looking ahead this week: Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday is the immediate next macro event, followed by Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, the most consequential AI infrastructure data point in months, with EPS consensus at $7.76 (+71% year-on-year) and options implying a 6%+ move. Salesforce and Home Depot also report. The third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday will determine whether the Strait of Hormuz risk premium continues to ease. Eleven Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to appear this week, potentially providing hawkish or dovish signals. The week’s overarching theme is a test of whether the constructive post-SCOTUS sentiment that briefly lifted markets on Friday can survive Trump’s tariff escalation and the crypto market’s continued Extreme Fear dynamics.

💎 Stablecoins, Tokenisation & Regulatory Frameworks

The stablecoin regulatory landscape continues to advance while the broader digital asset market faces acute macro headwinds. In the US, the GENIUS Act continues its trajectory toward the July 18th implementation deadline. The XRP Ledger's launch of a permissioned DEX is a significant structural development for institutional stablecoin and digital asset infrastructure, creating a compliant framework designed to facilitate regulated cross-border payments at scale. BlackRock's proposed iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB), by incorporating staking yield into an ETF wrapper with 82% of rewards distributed to shareholders, represents the most significant stablecoin and yield infrastructure development of the week, effectively creating a regulated, yield-bearing digital asset product that could accelerate the institutional positioning of ETH as a productive asset rather than purely speculative exposure. The Nakamoto-BTC Inc./UTXO $107 million all-stock merger signals continued consolidation within the Bitcoin corporate infrastructure ecosystem, even as prices remain depressed. Animoca Brands securing a Dubai licence continues the UAE’s positioning as a leading Web3 regulatory hub. The broader tokenisation landscape is advancing across real estate, commodities, and financial instruments, with the post-SCOTUS tariff environment potentially accelerating interest in blockchain-based cross-border settlement as an alternative to tariff-affected traditional trade finance.

China's "RAW" regulatory framework for digital assets represents the most significant international regulatory development for stablecoin and digital assets this week. The framework establishes formal supervisory structures for crypto in the world's second-largest economy, creating clearer rules for both domestic operators and international firms. Russia's move toward blocking foreign crypto exchanges by summer 2026, coupled with Russia's Deputy Finance Minister disclosing approximately 50 billion rubles in daily domestic crypto volume, reveals a bifurcated global approach: protecting domestic markets while acknowledging the scale of crypto activity that must be regulated. Grayscale and Canary Capital's launch of the first-ever spot Sui staking ETFs further expands the institutional product landscape beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The SEC’s 2% stablecoin haircut ruling creates structural pressure on every major broker-dealer to build stablecoin infrastructure: competitors who move first gain significant capital-efficiency advantages over those that do not. Exodus CEO JP Richardson summarised the dynamic: “Because their competitors now can, and there’s no longer a capital penalty that makes it uneconomical.” The broader tokenisation landscape continues advancing across real estate, commodities, and financial instruments. CZ’s signal of potential Binance US expansion when regulations become more favourable adds another data point to the broader institutional re-engagement with the US crypto market structure emerging across multiple fronts.

🤖 Technology, AI & Innovation

Monday’s “SaaSpocalypse”, the software sector selloff triggered by AI disruption fears, is the defining technology narrative of the week. Citrini Research’s projection of 10% unemployment from the AI boom, circulated on Wall Street trading floors, directly caused IBM to fall 13% after Anthropic detailed new Claude Code capabilities that reduce the need for traditional software development. CrowdStrike fell nearly 10%, Microsoft dropped 3%, and zero percent of software stocks traded above their 200-day moving average, versus 89% of chip stocks. The contrast is stark: AI hardware (Nvidia, TSMC) remains structurally strong, while AI-threatened software (SaaS, enterprise tools) is under systematic institutional de-rating. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back directly, calling the notion that software will be “replaced by AI” the “most illogical thing in the world”, though the market clearly disagrees in the short term.

Coinbase Markets will launch ETHGas (GWEI) spot trading today, opening GWEI-USD at 9:00 AM PT, a novel product that allows traders to gain direct exposure to Ethereum network fee dynamics. This reflects the deepening sophistication of crypto market infrastructure and the expansion of tradable on-chain metrics into regulated spot markets. The Step Finance $40 million hack, which has led the protocol and its affiliated platforms, SolanaFloor and Remora Markets, to cease operations, highlights the persistent security vulnerabilities in DeFi infrastructure. The protocol’s commitment to STEP token buybacks and redemptions aims to make affected users whole, but the incident adds to the regulatory pressure on DeFi platforms to implement robust security standards.

Anthropic’s continued release of advanced agentic AI capabilities, including Claude Code and Claude Cowork, is reshaping enterprise technology expectations in real time. The market’s violent reaction to these capabilities, while perhaps an overreaction in the short term, reflects a genuine structural shift in how institutional capital assesses software-sector risk. For DCW members at the intersection of AI and digital assets, this creates both risk (AI threatens traditional fintech business models) and opportunity (demand for AI-native digital asset infrastructure, on-chain AI provenance, decentralised compute networks). NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings on Wednesday will serve as the critical data point separating the AI hardware super-cycle from the AI software disruption narrative.

🌍 Global Monetary Policy & Macroeconomic

The Federal Reserve faces a complex policy environment in which AI-driven disinflation is emerging as a potential new variable. Core PCE at 3.0% year-over-year and Q4 GDP at just 1.4% annualised create the classic stagflationary signal. However, the AI disruption narrative, which hit financials and software hard on Monday, introduces a disinflationary force that could provide the Fed with additional cover to cut rates, even if the tariff-driven inflation from Trump’s 15% global levy creates an offsetting headwind. Markets continue to price approximately 50-52% probability of a June rate cut. Fed Governor Waller spoke Monday, reiterating that he believes any tariff-induced inflationary impact will be short-lived, a dovish signal from a key FOMC voice.

The oil market is building upward pressure on Tuesday. Brent crude has climbed toward $72/bbl as US-Iran tensions ahead of the third round of Geneva nuclear talks on Thursday provide geopolitical support. WTI is building higher lows and testing the $67.20 resistance level per technical analysis. Gold’s surge to approximately $5,220/oz (+2.6%) reflects the complex interplay of AI disruption fears, tariff uncertainty, and traditional safe-haven demand, with the precious metal approaching its January 28th record high of $5,602.22. Some analysts maintain targets of $7,000-$10,000 by year-end driven by central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and expected rate cuts. Silver’s continued strength toward $88/oz reflects both monetary and industrial precious metal demand.

The UK monetary policy context remains directly relevant. UK CPI at 3.0% and rising unemployment continue to make a compelling case for the Bank of England easing in March or April. UK export-oriented sectors face headwinds from Trump’s 15% global tariff, potentially strengthening the BoE’s easing case even as domestic inflation remains above target. The EU Parliament ECON Committee draft report on digital assets issued yesterday will shape UK regulatory policy discussion, given the close alignment between UK and EU digital asset frameworks post-Brexit. Kevin Warsh’s anticipated arrival as incoming Fed Chair, given his historically hawkish posture and scepticism toward private crypto, adds medium-term policy uncertainty to the US rate environment.

💡 DCW Intelligence & Insights

Sovereign Accumulation Signal: BlackRock's announcement of its ETHB staking ETF is the most significant institutional signal of the week. As the world's largest asset manager moves to create a yield-bearing Ethereum product, it effectively signals to every institutional allocator that ETH can function as a productive asset -- not merely speculative exposure. This is a qualitative shift: whereas Bitcoin ETFs capture price appreciation, ETHB captures network participation yield. At 82% of staking rewards distributed to shareholders and an expected debut in the first half of 2026, ETHB could catalyse institutional re-evaluation of ETH exposure at a moment when ETH prices are at a significant discount to cost basis. The combination of BlackRock's brand, Coinbase's execution, and Ethereum's staking infrastructure creates the most regulated, institutionally familiar staking yield product in history.

Regulatory Convergence Inflexion: The SCOTUS IEEPA ruling is a structural positive for global trade clarity, even though Trump’s immediate 15% response has recreated near-term uncertainty. The ruling establishes a clear legal principle that IEEPA does not authorise unilateral presidential tariff imposition, which constrains future executive overreach beyond the current administration. For community members operating in cross-border digital asset businesses, this represents a meaningful reduction in long-term policy unpredictability. The question is whether Trump can reconstitute equivalent tariff levels under the Trade Act of 1974 and other authorities, and early evidence suggests he is attempting to do exactly that, with the 15% global levy as the opening move.

NVIDIA Earnings as AI Infrastructure Bellwether: Wednesday’s results will test whether the AI capital expenditure cycle remains intact at current extraordinary levels. Consensus EPS of $7.76 (+71% year-on-year) reflects extraordinary demand. Still, any miss, particularly if accompanied by guidance commentary suggesting AI capex moderation, could significantly impact tech sentiment and, by extension, digital asset markets. The $30 billion OpenAI equity deal removes the $100 billion infrastructure commitment overhang from Nvidia's balance sheet. Options imply a 6%+ move in either direction. For DCW members: a strong Nvidia beat reinforces the AI infrastructure super-cycle and the downstream demand for blockchain-based AI services; a miss would test risk sentiment across all asset classes, including digital assets.

State of the Union Signals: Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 24th, is the immediate next macro catalyst. Delivered days after the SCOTUS tariff rebuke, the speech will be closely monitored for the administration's next moves: further tariff escalation under alternative authorities, potential signals of fiscal stimulus, or any conciliatory tone toward trading partners. The crypto and digital asset industry will watch for any references to the GENIUS Act timeline, stablecoin policy, or the administration's stance on the WLFI USD1 stablecoin ecosystem. Markets that rallied on the SCOTUS ruling may face renewed volatility if Trump signals aggressive tariff reconstitution under existing authorities.

⚠️ Risk Monitor

🔴 ELEVATED RISKS:

• 15% Global Tariff Escalation: Trump’s swift response to the SCOTUS ruling, escalating from 10% to 15% on Saturday, has revived the “sell America” trade; US futures down 0.7-1.0% Monday; dollar weakening; tariff uncertainty now reconstituted under a different legal authority
• Bitcoin Near $63,000: BTC briefly dipped below $63,000 Monday, with $60,000 now the next critical support; Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear) reflects deep market panic; Coinglass reports $470 million in liquidations over 24 hours; Binance stablecoin reserves down 19% since November, constraining dip-buying
• Nvidia Earnings Risk: Consensus expects 71% EPS growth; any miss or cautious guidance could materially impact AI sentiment; options imply 6%+ move; Nvidia makes up ~8% of S&P 500 index weighting
• ETH Continued Weakness: Ethereum at ~$1,835, down ~2.4%; ETH spot ETFs bled $41.8 million in outflows led by BlackRock ETHA (-$30M); ETF holders facing ~47% drawdown from $3,500 cost basis; $1,800 is next critical support; WLFI USD1 depeg incident adds DeFi security risk premium
• DeFi Security Events: Step Finance $40M hack leads to protocol closure; WLFI USD1 stablecoin temporarily depegged after alleged coordinated hack of co-founder accounts; accumulation of DeFi security incidents during Extreme Fear conditions adds to negative sentiment and may accelerate regulatory pressure on DeFi platforms
• State of the Union Volatility: Tuesday’s address could trigger market moves in either direction depending on tariff/trade policy signals; unpredictable policy communication risk remains elevated

🟢 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS:

• SEC Stablecoin Haircut (2%): Reduces broker-dealer stablecoin capital cost from 100% to 2%; frees balance-sheet capacity for stablecoin infrastructure; creates competitive imperative for all broker-dealers to build stablecoin rails; the most significant structural stablecoin development of the week
• Crypto.com OCC Approval: Conditional national trust bank charter for Foris Dax National Trust Bank; enables federally regulated custody, staking, and settlement; deepens integration of digital asset firms into US banking framework; part of a growing trend of crypto firms obtaining direct regulatory status
• Nvidia-OpenAI Equity Deal: $30B direct equity stake replaces $100B infrastructure commitment; removes balance sheet overhang; creates equity upside for Nvidia in one of the world’s most valuable AI companies; strategically bullish for AI infrastructure cycle
• Extreme Fear Contrarian Signal: Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear). Historically, readings below 10 have preceded significant medium-term recoveries; Bernstein characterises the environment as “weakest bear case in history” with no insolvencies or blow-ups; near-term catalysts (SOTU, Nvidia earnings) provide binary upside potential
• Extreme Fear Contrarian Signal: Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear); Bernstein describes it as “the weakest bear case in history” with no insolvencies or blow-ups; US retail Google searches for “bitcoin zero” at record high, historically a local bottom signal
• June Rate Cut Remains on Table: Markets price ~50-52% probability of a June Fed rate cut; Fed Governor Waller stated Monday that tariff inflationary impact is likely short-lived; AI-driven disinflation may add additional cover for the Fed to ease; a rate cut confirmation would be a meaningful liquidity tailwind for risk assets including digital assets

📰 Other News Stories

• Wall Street tumbled Monday: Dow -1.66% (821 points) to 48,804, S&P -1.04% to 6,837, Nasdaq -1.13% to 22,627; IBM fell 13% after Anthropic outlined Claude Code capabilities; CrowdStrike -10%, Microsoft -3%; financials -3.3%, software -4.3%; Eli Lilly +4.9%; Nvidia gained 0.9% ahead of Wednesday earnings
• Trump imposes 10% global tariff under Trade Act of 1974 hours after SCOTUS ruling, then escalates to 15% on Saturday; calls ruling “deeply disappointing” and names justices Gorsuch and Barrett as disloyal
• SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce clarifies broker-dealers should apply 2% haircut to stablecoins (down from an effective 100%), aligning with money market fund treatment; immediately described as “opening the floodgates for embedding stablecoins in institutional finance”
• EU Parliament ECON Committee issues draft report on digital assets (February 23rd), exploring competitiveness and integrity of the EU’s financial system; landmark input into post-MiCA regulatory evolution for digital assets across EU member states
• Bitcoin fell below $65,000 intraday Monday, analysts flag $60,000 as next support; Glassnode: seven-day EMA of net realised P&L near -$480 million; OI dropped to $19.5B vs 2026 peak of $38.3B
• US S&P 500 rose 0.69% Friday and Nasdaq +0.90% post-SCOTUS ruling; Monday futures reverse: S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -1.0%; Vanguard VXUS ETF hits all-time high as investors rotate to international equities
• Step Finance, SolanaFloor, and Remora Markets cease operations after $40M hack; team commits to STEP token buybacks; WLFI USD1 stablecoin temporarily depegs following alleged coordinated attack on co-founder accounts; DeFi security incidents add pressure amid Extreme Fear conditions
• Crypto whale deposits $2M USDC to Hyperliquid and opens 20x leveraged long on SOL (February 23rd), signalling bullish DeFi conviction; CZ signals Binance US expansion potential when regulations become more favourable; Coinbase launches GWEI (ETHGas) spot trading today at 9:00 AM PT
• Starling Bank Engine signs NZ mutual SBS Bank as latest client; LSE and Crowdcube launch first retail investor offer in private securities market partnership; Deutsche Bank AI research warns it is “coming for finance jobs” adding to AI disruption narrative
• Digital assets: BTC $63,200 (-3.4%), ETH $1,835 (-2.4%), XRP $1.33 (-2.3%), SOL $77.00 (-2.2%), ADA $0.258 (-2.6%), DOGE $0.091 (-3.4%); total crypto market cap $2.22 trillion; Fear & Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
• Gold rises to $5, 220/oz; Silver surges to $88.25/oz after +8% Friday; dollar sheds 0.4-0.6% vs yen and Swiss franc; Euro gains 0.4% to $1.1826; “sell America” trade revives
• Trump State of the Union tonight 9 PM ET; Home Depot and Workday earnings today; Nvidia and Salesforce earnings Wednesday; Dell and Intuit Thursday alongside initial jobless claims; January PPI Friday; Consumer Confidence released today at 10:00 AM ET

📅 Looking Ahead February 2026

Key Events and Catalysts:

Week of February 24th, Key Events: Trump State of the Union (Tuesday, February 24th), markets will watch for tariff, trade, and crypto policy signals following SCOTUS rebuke. Home Depot earnings on Tuesday. NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday, the most critical AI infrastructure confidence test of Q1 2026; EPS consensus $7.76 (+71%); options imply 6%+ move; Salesforce also on Wednesday. In the US-Iran Geneva nuclear talks round 3 on Thursday, diplomatic progress would ease the Strait of Hormuz risk premium, while initial jobless claims on Thursday would be a key indicator. The January PPI inflation will be released on Friday. Eleven Federal Reserve speaker appearances this week; any softening in language could accelerate June rate-cut expectations.

Late February 2026: Cardano USDCx stablecoin launch remains scheduled for the end of February 2026, a significant structural catalyst for Cardano's DeFi ecosystem. Senate CLARITY Act markup continues. BlackRock ETHB staking ETF regulatory review process begins. NVIDIA earnings (Wednesday) will set the tone for AI infrastructure confidence through Q2 2026.

Q1 2026 Broader Themes: GENIUS Act advancing toward July 18th implementation deadline. SCOTUS has established that IEEPA cannot authorise presidential tariffs, a legal constraint that reduces the long-term executive trade overreach risk, even as Trump reconstitutes tariffs under alternative authorities. BlackRock's ETHB represents the most significant institutional Ethereum product innovation of the year. NVIDIA's central role in AI infrastructure makes its Wednesday earnings a macro event with direct implications for digital asset markets. Fear & Greed Index at 14 (Extreme Fear) remains near cycle lows; Bernstein's "weakest bear case in history" thesis points to asymmetric upside when sentiment reverses. UK and potential Fed rate cuts represent meaningful upcoming liquidity tailwinds for risk assets, including digital assets.

ℹ️ About The Digital Commonwealth

The Digital Commonwealth Limited (DCW) is an independent industry organisation representing AI, Blockchain, DePIN, Digital Assets, ScienceTech, and Web3 sectors across our Community. Through strategic initiatives, including the Mansion House Summit Series, DCW Weekly Roundup research, DCW Cover insurance services, DCW Frontier Focus newsletter, and comprehensive advisory functions, we drive innovation, education, and collaboration across the digital economy ecosystem.

DCW's mission is to facilitate dialogue among industry stakeholders, policymakers, and regulators, whilst providing members with cutting-edge research, networking opportunities, and market intelligence. Our events bring together leading voices from traditional finance, technology innovation, and regulatory bodies to advance thoughtful frameworks supporting responsible digital asset adoption. Through DCW Cover, we address the critical insurance needs of participants in the digital economy, whilst our research publications provide authoritative analysis of regulatory developments, market trends, and technological innovation shaping the future of finance.

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This briefing is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The Digital Commonwealth Limited does not recommend that any cryptocurrency or digital asset be bought, sold, or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The information contained in this briefing has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Still, DCW makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness. All views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Digital Commonwealth Limited or its affiliates.

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